One-in-four properties in England – that’s 8 million homes and businesses – could be at risk from flooding by 2050 as a result of climate change according the latest report from the Environment Agency. Currently around 6.3 million properties are considered at risk, which is higher than previously thought. The new figure is the result of improved modelling.

“The frequency and severity of the kind of flood events that we’ve been experiencing are likely to become more and more challenging,” Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy at the EA, said.

The new National Assessment of Flood Risk (published 17 December) looks at flood risk from rivers, the sea and surface water. Revised assumptions about risk of surface water flooding – where heavy rainfall overwhelms drainage systems – accounts for much of the overall increase in current estimations of the number of properties at risk.

Building on floodplains, if the practice continues, could push these figures even higher. Conversely, investing in effective flood defences would reduce the risk of flooding. The EA recently issued a mid-term report on its £200m flood and coastal innovation programmes, in which projects are demonstrating how practical innovative actions can improve resilience to flooding and coastal erosion in a changing climate.